The Refinancing Cliff Map

One question, one screen: if each company refinanced the debt coming due in the next 24 months at today's market yields, how much would its annual interest bill rise — and what share of operating income would that consume? Names in the upper-left face expensive walls, soon. Bubble size is the amount of debt due within 24 months. Click any bubble for the full calculation.

Market yields: ICE BofA US Corporate & High Yield effective yields by rating bucket (via FRED, as of 2026-10-15). Rating buckets are synthetic — estimated from interest coverage — and the shock is an index-level approximation, not issuer-level bond pricing. How this is computed →

AAA yield

5.65%

A yield

5.71%

BBB yield

6.07%

BB yield

6.84%

B yield

8.12%

CCC yield

17.50%

Months to the wall vs. cost of crossing it

Y-axis: estimated annual interest increase from refinancing 24-month maturities at market yields, as % of operating income. X-axis: months until the first meaningful maturity bucket.

What if yields move? all yields +0 bps

High risk score Medium Low Bubble size = debt due within 24 months

Most expensive walls first

Company	Due ≤24mo	Current avg rate	Market yield	Est. added interest	% of op. income
Newell Brands NWL · est. CCC	$630M	5.2%	17.5%	+$78M/yr	199.2%
American Airlines Group AAL · est. CCC	$8.1B	8.5%	17.5%	+$729M/yr	49.7%
On Semiconductor ON · est. BBB	$700M	1.7%	6.1%	+$31M/yr	36.7%
Warner Bros. Discovery WBD · est. B	$16.6B	6.9%	8.1%	+$197M/yr	26.7%
Alaska Air Group ALK · est. A	$1.1B	1.8%	5.7%	+$44M/yr	14.4%
Microchip Technology MCHP · est. BBB	$2.0B	3.7%	6.1%	+$47M/yr	9.7%
Diamondback Energy FANG · est. AA	$2.7B	1.9%	5.7%	+$99M/yr	7.9%
Equinix EQIX · est. AA	$2.5B	2.0%	5.7%	+$91M/yr	4.9%
Eversource Energy ES · est. BBB	$4.3B	3.0%	6.1%	+$131M/yr	4.4%
Wec Energy Group WEC · est. BBB	$3.7B	3.6%	6.1%	+$89M/yr	4.0%
Cvs Health CVS · est. BB	$7.4B	4.6%	6.8%	+$168M/yr	3.6%
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH · est. BB	$2.4B	4.7%	6.8%	+$52M/yr	3.3%
Kroger KR · est. AA	$2.0B	2.9%	5.7%	+$55M/yr	2.9%
Wynn Resorts WYNN · est. B	$2.9B	7.0%	8.1%	+$32M/yr	2.9%
American Electric Power AEP · est. BBB	$5.6B	3.6%	6.1%	+$137M/yr	2.6%
Tesla TSLA · est. AAA	$2.8B	1.7%	5.7%	+$110M/yr	2.5%
Duke Energy DUK · est. BBB	$10.8B	4.2%	6.1%	+$205M/yr	2.4%
Verizon Communications VZ · est. A	$26.8B	3.1%	5.7%	+$692M/yr	2.4%
Dell Technologies DELL · est. A	$8.1B	3.5%	5.7%	+$180M/yr	2.2%
Illinois Tool Works ITW · est. AAA	$2.5B	2.5%	5.7%	+$79M/yr	1.9%
Xcel Energy XEL · est. B	$1.0B	4.0%	8.1%	+$42M/yr	1.6%
Las Vegas Sands LVS · est. BBB	$3.5B	4.9%	6.1%	+$41M/yr	1.5%
Highwoods Properties HIW · est. BBB	$465M	4.3%	6.1%	+$8M/yr	1.5%
Marvell Technology MRVL · est. A	$1.2B	4.3%	5.7%	+$18M/yr	1.4%
Cisco Systems CSCO · est. AAA	$4.5B	1.3%	5.7%	+$196M/yr	1.3%
NetApp NTAP · est. AAA	$550M	2.6%	5.7%	+$17M/yr	1.0%
AbbVie ABBV · est. A	$11.1B	4.5%	5.7%	+$136M/yr	0.9%
Target TGT · est. AAA	$2.1B	3.5%	5.7%	+$45M/yr	0.9%
RTX RTX · est. A	$6.3B	4.5%	5.7%	+$75M/yr	0.8%
AT&T T · est. A	$17.6B	4.7%	5.7%	+$186M/yr	0.8%

What this is — and isn't

Each estimate uses only public inputs: the company's SEC-reported maturity schedule and interest expense, and index-level market yields. The current average rate is interest expense ÷ total interest-bearing debt; the market yield comes from the ICE BofA effective-yield index for the company's synthetic rating bucket (estimated from interest coverage). Actual new-issue pricing depends on the issuer's real ratings, tenor, security, and market conditions on the day.

Companies are excluded when the estimate would be unreliable: deposit-funded financials, stale or incomplete maturity schedules, implied current rates outside a sanity window, or less than $100M due within 24 months. The value of this screen is the ranking — which walls are expensive relative to earnings power — not any single point estimate.