Hidden Future Pain
Most of the pain in the maturity wall hasn't happened yet. Debt issued in the low-rate era still pays its old coupon — until it matures and rolls over at today's yields. Because each refinanced bond keeps paying the new rate, the added cost compounds year after year. This page projects that build-up: the change in each company's annual interest run-rate as its schedule rolls, assuming today's ICE BofA index yields hold.
The interest bill, building by the year
Net projected change in aggregate annual interest run-rate ($B/yr) once all debt maturing up to each horizon has refinanced at today's yields. Stacked by sector.
Where the pain concentrates
Ranked by the five-year-horizon interest increase as a share of operating income. The mini bars show how each company's pain builds from +1 to +5 years.
| Company | Added interest at +5yr | % of op. income |
|---|---|---|
|
On Semiconductor
ON · est. BBB |
+$92M/yr | 108.8% |
|
American Airlines Group
AAL · est. CCC |
+$1.0B/yr | 70.2% |
|
Alaska Air Group
ALK · est. A |
+$78M/yr | 25.7% |
|
Microchip Technology
MCHP · est. BBB |
+$107M/yr | 21.8% |
|
Equinix
EQIX · est. AA |
+$322M/yr | 17.4% |
|
Diamondback Energy
FANG · est. AA |
+$175M/yr | 13.8% |
|
Warner Bros. Discovery
WBD · est. B |
+$76M/yr | 10.3% |
|
Eversource Energy
ES · est. BBB |
+$296M/yr | 9.9% |
|
Wec Energy Group
WEC · est. BBB |
+$220M/yr | 9.8% |
|
Tesla
TSLA · est. AAA |
+$279M/yr | 6.4% |
|
Cvs Health
CVS · est. BB |
+$282M/yr | 6.0% |
|
Kroger
KR · est. AA |
+$98M/yr | 5.2% |
|
American Electric Power
AEP · est. BBB |
+$261M/yr | 4.9% |
|
Xcel Energy
XEL · est. B |
+$110M/yr | 4.3% |
|
Verizon Communications
VZ · est. A |
+$1.2B/yr | 4.2% |
|
Duke Energy
DUK · est. BBB |
+$326M/yr | 3.8% |
|
Cisco Systems
CSCO · est. AAA |
+$362M/yr | 3.1% |
|
NXP Semiconductors N.V
NXPI · est. AA |
+$73M/yr | 2.4% |
|
Illinois Tool Works
ITW · est. AAA |
+$101M/yr | 2.4% |
|
Dell Technologies
DELL · est. A |
+$184M/yr | 2.3% |
|
Marvell Technology
MRVL · est. A |
+$26M/yr | 2.0% |
|
Target
TGT · est. AAA |
+$86M/yr | 1.7% |
|
GoDaddy
GDDY · est. A |
+$15M/yr | 1.4% |
|
AbbVie
ABBV · est. A |
+$184M/yr | 1.2% |
|
Home Depot
HD · est. AAA |
+$229M/yr | 1.1% |
Assumptions, stated plainly
Every maturing bucket is assumed to refinance (not be repaid from cash) at the current ICE BofA effective yield for the company's synthetic rating bucket, and yields are assumed to stay at today's levels (2026-07-21) for five years — no cuts, no hikes, no spread moves. Reality will differ; the value here is seeing which companies' income statements are most exposed to the rollover, and how the exposure is sequenced. Full method on the methodology page; each company page shows the same projection with its inputs, plus a rate slider to test other yield levels.